NBA Draft Lottery Explained: How Teams Get Their Picks

If you’ve ever wondered why the worst‑record team doesn’t always land the No. 1 pick, you’re not alone. The NBA Draft Lottery is the system that decides the order of the top picks, and it’s built to give every non‑playoff team a shot while still rewarding the best records.

How the Lottery Works

Each year the 14 teams that miss the playoffs are entered into the lottery. The league uses a 14‑ball, 4‑ball draw that creates 1,001 possible combinations. The team with the worst record gets 140 combinations (about 14% chance), the next‑worst gets 125 (12.5%), and the odds keep dropping until the team with the best non‑playoff record, which only gets a 5‑combination chance (0.5%).

On lottery night, the NBA randomly selects four balls to create a four‑digit number. That number matches one of the 1,001 combos. The team that owns the combo gets the No. 1 pick. The process repeats for the No. 2 pick, and then for the No. 3 pick. After the top three spots are set, the remaining teams are slotted in reverse order of their regular‑season records.

Because only three picks are drawn, it’s possible for a team with better odds to jump ahead of a team with worse odds. That’s why you sometimes see a team with a 6% chance snag the No. 1 slot while the worst team slides to No. 4.

What the Odds Mean for Teams

Understanding the odds helps fans set realistic expectations. A team with a 14% chance still has an 86% chance of not getting the top pick. That’s why many franchises view the lottery as a gamble rather than a guarantee.

Teams often use the lottery to plan their offseason moves. If a franchise knows it’s likely to pick early, it may target a specific college star or international prospect. Conversely, a team that lands a later pick might focus on trades, free agency, or developing existing talent.

Recent lottery results show the randomness in action. In 2023, the Detroit Pistons, who had the third‑worst record, landed the No. 1 pick, while the Chicago Bulls, with the worst record, fell to No. 5. Those swings can reshape a franchise’s trajectory overnight.

If you’re a fan trying to predict outcomes, look at the odds chart each season. The percentages stay the same, but the order of teams changes based on win‑loss records. Keep in mind that the lottery is purposely designed to keep the draft competitive and give every team a fighting chance.

Finally, remember that the lottery only decides the first three picks. The rest of the first round follows a straightforward reverse‑order rule, so a team that misses out on a top spot still knows exactly where it will pick.

So next time you watch the lottery live, you’ll know why the numbers matter, how the odds are calculated, and what it means for your favorite team’s future. Whether you’re rooting for a lucky breakout or just curious about the process, the NBA Draft Lottery adds a dose of excitement to an already thrilling offseason.